Sample · Methodology demonstration

Public data · Florida · ZIP-code grain

Every number here is sourced.
Every limit is labeled.

A statewide market screen built entirely on public data — and an honest account of what public data can and cannot see. Most market maps quietly hide their gaps. This one features them — because the gaps are where the real work begins.

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Two buyers, two questions

Two very different buyers look at a business like this. A search fund building a platform needs to know which markets to hunt across — a portfolio question. An individual buyer staking an SBA loan on one location needs to know about one corner — an existential one.

This statewide screen narrows a whole state to the handful of markets that earn a closer look; the per-market drill-down answers the next question — whether one specific corner does too. Most of what follows is written for the second buyer — the one for whom this is the only deal that matters.

The screen

Demand, scored in the open

Every Florida ZIP code (ZCTA) is scored 0–100 for laundromat demand fit, from U.S. Census data on a transparent five-part rubric — the industry customer profile, weighted and disclosed, not a black box. 983 ZIPs scored.

    ZCTA grain — coarser than a trade area Demand FIT — a heuristic, not a prediction Rubric weights disclosed
    FL laundromat demand fit — 0 (dark) to 100 (light)

    The limits are the point

    The supply side is a floor — not a census

    Public place-data undercounts small businesses badly and unevenly. We hand-reconciled three markets against the ground truth. In one, a public floor of 12 laundromats was really 25 — a 52% miss.

    So a low floor is a candidate to verify on the ground — never "underserved." A high floor is reliable enough to screen out. The screen says where to look; the corner beats the county.

    Supply = a lower-bound FLOOR Calibrated: 0–52% undercount A screen, not a site decision

    Screen, then drill

    From 983 ZIPs to a 48-market shortlist

    candidate · scored, screened

    Keep only the ZIPs where demand is high and the supply floor is low — high demand-fit (≥ 70) and a floor at or below 1. That is the honest definition of "look closer": strong signal, thin visible competition (which the floor may be undercounting). 48 candidates surface statewide.

    The filter narrows attention; it does not conclude. Each surviving ZIP is a question to answer at street level, not an answer.

    The shortlist's #1

    ZCTA 33136, Miami

    The screen ranks ZCTA 33136 first in the state on demand fit (). The mechanism is structural, not a matter of place: laundromat demand rises where households rent and lack in-unit laundry — that points to dense, high-renter, multifamily housing. On the measured inputs, 33136 is renter-occupied and multifamily, and all five demand components score high.

    The supply read is the honest part. Public place-data shows zero laundromats inside this ZIP. Given the calibrated 50–52% undercount, a floor of zero is most likely an undercount, not an empty market. This is a candidate to verify on the ground — at trade-area radius, with a real supply walk — before any conclusion. The screen has done its job: it says look here, and exactly what to check.

    From screen to diligence

    What the method shows — and exactly where it stops

    The credential isn't a verdict on 33136; it's the discipline of separating what the public method can show from the question you carry into diligence — ranked by what actually decides a laundromat.

    1

    Water & sewer margin

    The public method shows — commercial water/sewer rate schedules are public and vary widely by municipality: a real, knowable margin input for any laundromat. (This screen does not yet display a per-ZIP rate — that's a build item, not a number to invent.)

    You take to diligence — the store's actual water bill, private and obtained in diligence, is the revenue truth-serum: metered gallons back out wash-cycle volume and real revenue, cross-checked against the seller's P&L. Market rate is context; the bill is proof.

    2

    The competition on the corner

    The public method shows — a floor, not a count. The statewide screen is ZCTA-grain, and public place-data undercounts supply by roughly half (the calibration above: ~50–52%). Statewide, that is honestly all it can claim.

    You take to diligence — the real corner count is a radius drill-down: the Overture floor, reconciled against records, then a drive-by to verify on the ground. The same method as the calibration — run at one address.

    3

    Equipment age & capex

    The public method shows — nothing. The engine has no line of sight into a specific store's machine vintage — and pretending otherwise would break the whole premise.

    You take to diligence — a capex item the public data does not cover: machine age, water efficiency, and remaining life, inspected on site. Named here because the gaps get labeled too.

    4

    Semi-absentee viability

    The public method shows — context only: local density and labor-cost signals that shape how hands-on a location tends to be.

    You take to diligence — operator diligence answers it: staffing, hours, and the attendant model for this specific store.

    The same honest engine, a different market

    One method. Opposite maps.

    Point the same engine at self-storage and the rubric changes with the customer: storage demand skews to higher-income, fast-growing single-family exurbs — the opposite income direction from laundromats. The cleanest proof is a single ZIP.

    ZCTA 33136 — the #1 laundromat market — is near the bottom for self-storage. Same place, opposite ends. That is not a bug; it is the method being honest about who each business actually serves.

    Self-storage calibration: PROVISIONAL Two customer archetypes — this screens the exurb homeowner
    FL self-storage demand fit — note the exurbs light up
    Sample · Methodology demonstration

    The whole point is the labels

    Every figure above traces to a public dataset and a disclosed method. The limits — the floor, the ZIP grain, the provisional calibration — are stated in the open, because a screen that hides its gaps is worth less than one that names them.


    Sources & method

    • U.S. Census Bureau — American Community Survey 2019–2023 5-year (ZCTA), for demand inputs.
    • Overture Maps Foundation — places (release 2026-06-17.0), for the supply floor (a lower bound).
    • Census TIGER/Line + Gazetteer — ZCTA geometry (Render geometry is the Census cartographic-boundary ZCTA520 (2020, vintage-compatible with 2023 ACS), simplified (Visvalingam ~7%) and quantized to TopoJSON for offline embedding; analysis uses full ACS data.).
    • Demand fit: a transparent, weighted five-component rubric on the industry customer profile — a labeled heuristic, not a prediction of any site's outcome.
    • Supply: hand-reconciled in three markets to calibrate the public undercount (0–52%).
    • Self-storage: the same engine, a re-weighted rubric; calibration provisional (no facility ground truth).

    Source: ACS acs/acs5 2023 (ZCTA); TIGER/Gazetteer 2020/2023. Self-contained · opens offline · Leaflet 1.9.4 + topojson-client 3.1.0 (vendored, tile-free).